Social protection is often discussed as a policy issue. But for workers, it is a daily question of whether a medical bill can be covered, a family can absorb a shock, or a job offers protection beyond a monthly wage. 

In Lebanon, where overlapping crises have reduced household incomes and stretched public services, access to the National Social Security Fund (NSSF) has become more critical. A new LAU study shows that the NSSF does not universally guarantee healthcare and end-of-service benefits, but is also closely tied to employment status, shaping labor market security and leaving some employers outside the formal safety net. 

The paper, titled “Non-universal social protection systems and labor market outcomes in unstable economies: the case of Lebanon,” published in the International Journal of Manpower, was co-authored by Dr. Ali Fakih, professor and associate dean at the Adnan Kassar School of Business (AKSOB), Dr. Khodr Fakih, associate professor, director of Legal Studies, and coordinator of Business Law at AKSOB, along with alumna Wafaa El Baba (MA ’22). 

According to Dr. Fakih, the study was motivated by “the central role of social protection in shaping labor market security in Lebanon,” especially in a context where informality, economic instability, and fragmented welfare protection leave many workers outside effective coverage. It examines whether this inequitable structure affects employment outcomes, and particularly whether NSSF coverage is associated with wage employment rather than self-employment. 

The authors drew on the 2019 Labor Force and Household Living Conditions Survey, the latest comprehensive labor dataset available for Lebanon, which covers more than 39,000 households and over 149,000 individuals. 

For this study, the researchers focused on 47,791 employed individuals aged 15 and above. They used a statistical model to compare different job categories—mainly wage employment, self-employment, and employers— while accounting for gender, age, education, household size, enterprise size, income, and insurance coverage. 

The study found that workers enrolled in the NSSF are significantly more likely to be wage employees than self-employed. In the statistical analysis, NSSF enrollment increased the likelihood of wage employment by nearly 24 percent. Public-sector-related schemes, including the Civil Servants’ Cooperative and army and internal security coverage, showed a similar association with wage employment. Private insurance, however, followed a different pattern. It was not significantly associated with wage employment but was positively associated with being an employer. 

In other words, wage workers are far more likely to benefit from public insurance schemes, like the NSSF, while many self-employed workers and employers either rely on alternative arrangements or remain outside formal coverage altogether. 

The data also reveal the uneven distribution of these benefits across the labor market. Women, youth, and prime-age workers were significantly more likely to be wage employees and beneficiaries of the NSSF, as were individuals with a higher education, compared to those with a secondary education.

Furthermore, workers employed in medium and large enterprises were much more likely to be wage employees with NSSF coverage, whereas those in small firms were more exposed to informality and weaker protection. This suggests that many micro and small businesses remain only partially integrated into Lebanon’s social protection system.

Based on the findings, Dr. Ali Fakih said that Lebanon needs “a more inclusive social protection system.” This would mean expanding coverage beyond formal wage employment to include the self-employed and workers in micro and small enterprises through affordable contribution mechanisms, simplified registration, and lower administrative barriers. 

Because the analysis is based on 2019 data, it raises an important question: How have Lebanon’s economic collapse, the COVID-19 pandemic, the Beirut port explosion, currency depreciation, and the deterioration of household welfare and institutional capacity changed these patterns?

Although using more recent data would likely affect “the magnitude of the findings,” said Dr. Fakih, the main direction of the argument would probably remain similar.

“Since then, informality, job insecurity, and financial pressure on both workers and firms have intensified,” he said. “For this reason, more recent data may show an even wider gap between workers who have access to NSSF coverage and those who do not.” Self-employed and informal workers, he added, are likely to have become more exposed to income instability, health expenditure, and old-age insecurity.

He emphasized the need to encourage the formalization of small enterprises through targeted incentives, digital procedures, and stronger compliance mechanisms. At the same time, he said, the NSSF itself requires institutional strengthening, including improved service quality, benefits that reflect inflation and healthcare costs, better contribution collection, and faster access to benefits. 

Since many vulnerable groups cannot be protected through payroll-based contributions alone, Dr. Fakih noted that contributory insurance should be complemented with tax-funded measures such as a social pension and broader social assistance. Such reforms, he said, would help reduce vulnerability, support formal employment, and move Lebanon toward a more inclusive social protection framework. 

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